The 858 REALTY News

LEWISTON, Maine  — 

"Numb's the word," says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.

The almanac's 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder-than-average temperatures this winter, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.

"This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people," said almanac editor Peter Geiger.

The almanac predicts above-normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest, especially during January and February, and above-normal precipitation for the Southwest in December and for the Southeast in January and February. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions will likely have an unusually wet or snowy February, the almanac said.

In contrast, the usually wet Pacific Northwest could be a bit drier than normal in February.

Looking ahead to summer, the almanac foresees near-normal temperatures in most places. But much of the Southwest should prepare for unusually hot weather in June and July, while Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas will get oppressive July heat and humidity.

The almanac — not to be confused with the New Hampshire-based Old Farmer's Almanac which is 26 years older — attributes its forecasts to reclusive prognosticator Caleb Weatherbee, who uses a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets and the tidal action of the moon.

Weatherbee's outlook is borne out by e-mails the almanac has received in recent days from readers who have spotted signs of nature they say point to a rough winter, Geiger said. These folklore signs range from an abundance of acorns already on the ground to the frequency of fog in August.

The almanac is at odds with the National Weather Service, whose trends-based outlook calls for warmer than normal weather this winter over much of the country, including Alaska, said Ed O'Lenic, chief of the operations branch at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The almanac and the weather service are in sync, however, in pointing to a chance of a drier winter in the Northwest.

O'Lenic wouldn't comment specifically on the almanac's ability to forecast the weather two years from now, but said it's generally impossible to come up with accurate forecasts more than a week in advance.

"Of course it's possible to prepare a forecast with any lead time you like. Whether or nor that forecast has any accuracy or usable skill is another question," he said.

Geiger sticks to his guns, saying the almanac was on target in the 2008 edition when it said the Northeast and the Great Lakes would have a long, cold winter with lots of snow.

The almanac claims a circulation of about 3 1/2 million. Most are sold to banks, insurance companies and other businesses that give them away. Other versions are sold by retailers in the U.S. and Canada.

Circulation has dropped in recent years, a reflection of a trend that affects many print publications. The almanac has been increasing emphasis on its Web site and also offers a half-hour program that airs weekly on about 90 percent of the nation's public television stations.

However, some aspects of the almanac never change. The 2009 retail edition has the usual mix of helpful hints, recipes, gardening tips, riddles, anecdotes, corny jokes and inspirational messages.

If there's a theme to this year's almanac, it's environmental awareness, frugality and living a sustainable life. There are articles on water conservation, gas-sipping motor scooters, natural cures and preventions for colds and other illnesses, and on growing food without a yard.

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- New-home sales in the U.S. improved in July from a 17-year low and construction cutbacks by builders reduced the glut of properties on the market by the most in almost five decades.

Sales increased 2.4 percent to a 515,000 annual pace that was lower than anticipated after a downwardly revised 503,000 rate in June, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The number of unsold homes on the market fell 5.2 percent, the most since November 1963, to a 416,000 pace.

Lower prices have made homes more affordable for Americans still able to obtain a mortgage, stemming the slide in demand and making it more likely the property glut will clear. A more stable housing market would eliminate one of the biggest risks to the economy even as the credit crisis and job losses threaten growth.

``We're hopefully getting in the vicinity of a bottom,'' David Resler, chief U.S. economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York, said before the report. Still, ``we're a long way from a recovery. We'll see activity at low levels for a while.''

Economists forecast new-home sales would drop to a 525,000 annual pace from an originally reported 530,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 76 economists. Forecasts ranged from 493,000 to 570,000.

The median price of a new home decreased 6.3 percent to $230,700, from $246,200 a year earlier.

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. house prices declined at a slower pace for the fourth straight month in June, signaling that the worst housing slump in more than 25 years may be starting to stabilize.

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent from the previous month, with nine areas reporting a gain compared with seven in May, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed. Prices were down 15.9 percent from the previous month, less than economists had forecast.

The figures add evidence that the drag on the economy from the housing slump is lessening, while officials and analysts predict that a rebound remains at least a year away. A private report yesterday showed that sales of existing homes in the past three months averaged the same rate as the previous period.

``We're seeing a slowing in the pace of home-price depreciation,'' said Guy Lebas, chief economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. ``The middle of next year is when we would expect to see some improvement.''

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose in July from a 10-year low as declining prices helped stabilize demand.

Resales rose 3.1 percent, more than forecast, to an annual rate of 5 million from 4.85 million in June, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 7.1 percent from July 2007, and the number of homes for sale jumped to a record.

Record foreclosures have pushed property values down even more, luring some bargain hunters into the market. Still, tougher lending rules, rising unemployment and a glut of unsold houses signal the outlook for residential real estate remains grim.

``It'll be a while before we get a real recovery in housing,'' Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York, said before the report. ``These things take time to work through. Prices have come off, so that's helping home sales a little.''

Resales were forecast to rise to a 4.91 million annual rate, according to the median estimate of 75 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from 4.69 million to 5 million. July's sale rate was the highest since February.

A new home price index published for the first time this summer by Integrated Asset Services showed that home prices rose 1.1 percent on a national level in June compared to May, although prices dropped 11.5 percent over the previous year.

The IAS360 House Price Index indicates that Midwest prices increased 4.7 percent in June, resulting in a 0.2 percent decline compared with the previous year. Prices in the West fell 0.5 percent in June and were down 16.9 percent compared to a year ago.

The index is not adjusted for seasonal forces, such as the typically stronger spring and summer selling season and appears more volatile than other indexes, observers say.

Denver-based IAS specializes in residential real estate valuations and the disposition of bank-owned properties.

Source: Reuters News (08/12/2008)